FC St. Pauli 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 49%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SC Paderborn 07 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 5W 3D 2L at Millerntor-Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Paderborn 07 — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC St. Pauli, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 64% and SC Paderborn 07 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 67% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.62 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.237 / defence 0.876 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.911 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.416. Data: 39 FC St. Pauli games / 39 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 26%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | SC Paderborn 07 3.85. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 60% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.62 / SC Paderborn 07 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.237 / def 0.876 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.911 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 49% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.24x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.06
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.13 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 18W 10D 11L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 17W 12D 10L from 39 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.64 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 10W 5D 4L from 19 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.90 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 62%.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 games (1.64 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.26 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 58%, SC Paderborn 07 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for FC St. Pauli and 58% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC St. Pauli's games and 53% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 58% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.62 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.91 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 26%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 67%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.64 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.