FC Schalke 04 2-4 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to VELTINS-Arena to take on FC Schalke 04. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 5W 1D 4L at VELTINS-Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.83 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Schalke 04 1.90 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Schalke 04 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 42% versus SV Darmstadt 98 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 58% | SV Darmstadt 98 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.87 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.191 / defence 1.058 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.996 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.372. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing FC Schalke 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 FC Schalke 04 games / 12 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 45% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.70. FC Schalke 04 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 45% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.87 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.191 / def 1.058 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.996 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.45
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 4 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 45% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Schalke 04's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.32
1.45
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
4%
24.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.45 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 7W 1D 4L from 12 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 4L across 12 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.83 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.25 scored and 1.17 conceded. SV Darmstadt 98's attacking output running into FC Schalke 04's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.67 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.83 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2022, when FC Schalke 04 won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Schalke 04 at 67%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Schalke 04 and 83% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Schalke 04's games and 83% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 83% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Schalke 04 2-4 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.87 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.45 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.00 / defence 1.38, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 45% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 58%, SV Darmstadt 98 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.83 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.