FC Ingolstadt 04 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Audi-Sportpark to take on FC Ingolstadt 04. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Audi-Sportpark — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (FC Ingolstadt 04) versus 1.10 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Ingolstadt 04 48% and SC Paderborn 07 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 62% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.06 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.785 / defence 1.398 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.061 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.338. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 29 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 57%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 50% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.06 / SC Paderborn 07 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.785 / def 1.398 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.061 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.98
SC Paderborn 07 xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 17% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 0W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Ingolstadt 04's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
17%
5.77
26%
3.84
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.98
SC Paderborn 07 xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
2%
41.94
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.98 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.66 PPG on a 4W 7D 18L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 10W 11D 8L from 29 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 4D 2L from 14 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.41 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.72 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 72%.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 4W 7D 18L in their last 29 games (0.66 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 10W 11D 8L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.71 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 50%, SC Paderborn 07 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 64% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 43% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 64% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 64% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 0-1 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.06 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.98 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.79 / defence 1.40 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 57%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 62%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.66. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.