FC Ingolstadt 04 0-3 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Ingolstadt 04 host SSV Jahn Regensburg at Audi-Sportpark in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Audi-Sportpark, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 0W 2D 3L this season (5 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SSV Jahn Regensburg — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 46% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 64% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.74 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.682 / defence 1.292 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.850 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.304. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 11 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 16% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 6.25 | Draw 2.94 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.00. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: FC Ingolstadt 04 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 16% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.74 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.682 / def 1.292 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.850 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 3 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 16% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 50% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Ingolstadt 04's attack at 0.68x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
16%
6.39
34%
2.92
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.17
1.43
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
6.39
16%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
26.78
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 16.3 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.43 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Ingolstadt 04's recent record stands at 1W 2D 8L from 11 games, a 0.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 1L across 11 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 1.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Ingolstadt 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Ingolstadt 04 have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 2.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 64%.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.40 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2022, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 60%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC Ingolstadt 04) and 20% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 40%; FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 40% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent games and 20% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Jahn Regensburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat FC Ingolstadt 04 0-3 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.74 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.43 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.68 / defence 1.29 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 16% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 64%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.