1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Voith-Arena, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Erzgebirge AUE have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Erzgebirge AUE's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in 1. FC Heidenheim's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Erzgebirge AUE in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Heidenheim lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Erzgebirge AUE winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Erzgebirge AUE — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 55% versus Erzgebirge AUE 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 59% | Erzgebirge AUE 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.59 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.236 / defence 0.965 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.817 / defence 1.809. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.338. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.809 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 1. FC Heidenheim games / 29 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 69% | Draw 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 12%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Erzgebirge AUE 8.33. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 80% | Erzgebirge AUE 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 69% | Draw 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 62% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.59 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.236 / def 0.965 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.817 / def 1.809 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE xG
62%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 69% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | Erzgebirge AUE 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.24) and Erzgebirge AUE's defence rating (1.81), the model arrives at 2.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzgebirge AUE's attack (0.82x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 1-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
69%
1.46
20%
5.09
12%
8.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.65
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
8.61
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
7%
13.34
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
1%
114.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.05 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 13W 6D 10L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Erzgebirge AUE's form line: 4W 7D 18L from 29 games, 0.66 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.21 PPG from 14 outings (9W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 1W 5D 8L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.93 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
Erzgebirge AUE
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 6D 10L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 4W 7D 18L in their last 29 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.21 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
2
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Erzgebirge AUE have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE?
Erzgebirge AUE have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for 1. FC Heidenheim, 64% for Erzgebirge AUE — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 71% for Erzgebirge AUE. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Erzgebirge AUE?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 64% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 71% of Erzgebirge AUE's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Erzgebirge AUE cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.59 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Erzgebirge AUE outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.82 / defence 1.81, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 69% | Draw 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 12%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Erzgebirge AUE win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 59%, Erzgebirge AUE 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.66. Form was overturned, with Erzgebirge AUE winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.