Erzgebirge AUE 1-4 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Erzgebirge AUE welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Erzgebirgsstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Erzgebirge AUE have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Erzgebirgsstadion, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.83 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form points away from home here. SC Paderborn 07's 1.83 PPG return is 1.33 points per game ahead of Erzgebirge AUE's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

In-Play Profile

Erzgebirge AUE in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 33% versus SC Paderborn 07 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 33% | SC Paderborn 07 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 0.62 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.649 / defence 1.227 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.186 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.356. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Erzgebirge AUE games / 6 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 8% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 67%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 12.50 | Draw 4.00 | SC Paderborn 07 1.49. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (67%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Erzgebirge AUE 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33% BTTS from recent games.

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