Erzgebirge AUE 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzgebirge AUE vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Erzgebirge AUE host SSV Jahn Regensburg at Erzgebirgsstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Erzgebirge AUE have posted 2W 1D 7L at Erzgebirgsstadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Erzgebirge AUE 0.20 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 58% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 58% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.11 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.785 / defence 1.551 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.757 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.505. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Erzgebirge AUE games / 24 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 20% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.04. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40%.

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