Energie Cottbus 3-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Energie Cottbus at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LEAG Energie Stadion plays host to Energie Cottbus versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Energie Cottbus (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Energie Cottbus against 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Energie Cottbus 1.69 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Energie Cottbus attack 1.070 / defence 1.064 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.899 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.397. Data: 2 Energie Cottbus games / 36 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 46% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: Energie Cottbus 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. Energie Cottbus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Energie Cottbus as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Energie Cottbus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: LEAG Energie Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 46% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Energie Cottbus 1.69 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Energie Cottbus attack 1.070 / def 1.064 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.899 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Energie Cottbus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Energie Cottbus xG
Expected Goals
1.34
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at LEAG Energie Stadion.
What was the final score in Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Energie Cottbus 3 - 4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at LEAG Energie Stadion.
What competition is Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Energie Cottbus a 46% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Energie Cottbus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Energie Cottbus (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Energie Cottbus's attack at 1.07x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.90x) against Energie Cottbus's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Energie Cottbus Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.20
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Energie Cottbus xG
Total xG
3.02
1.34
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.34 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Energie Cottbus's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Energie Cottbus by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Energie Cottbus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 100%.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Energie Cottbus
0
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 1 meetings on record, Energie Cottbus have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Energie Cottbus 3-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Energie Cottbus home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Energie Cottbus play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Energie Cottbus's games and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Energie Cottbus's matches and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Energie Cottbus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Energie Cottbus 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Energie Cottbus 3-4 at LEAG Energie Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Energie Cottbus 1.69 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.34 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Energie Cottbus beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Energie Cottbus attack 1.07 / defence 1.06 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Energie Cottbus 46% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with Energie Cottbus to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Energie Cottbus 100%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Energie Cottbus arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Energie Cottbus scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.