Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Braunschweig have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 3W 2D 5L at Eintracht-Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Eintracht Braunschweig 0W, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 60% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 58% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.878 / defence 1.255 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.821 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.408. Data: 48 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 48 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.878 / def 1.255 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.821 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.45
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Eintracht Braunschweig 0 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.88x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.82x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.60
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.84
1.45
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.45 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 11D 26L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (17W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.46 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 11D 26L in their last 48 games (0.92 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.39 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
3
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Eintracht Braunschweig, 70% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 56% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.45 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 58%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.