1. FC Nürnberg 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (1. FC Nürnberg) versus 0.90 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 41% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 49% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.16 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.050 / defence 0.946 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.789 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.364. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 1. FC Nürnberg games / 39 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 64% | Draw 20% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.88. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 64% | Draw 20% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.16 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.050 / def 0.946 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.789 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 64% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.05) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.07
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.18
1.02
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
52.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.02 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 10D 17L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 11W 12D 16L from 39 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.18 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 4D 13L from 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.53 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.53 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 68% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 37% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 74% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.16 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.02 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 64% | Draw 20% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 49%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.