1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.20 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 46% versus SC Paderborn 07 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 52% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.801 / defence 1.273 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.109 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.340. Data: 63 1. FC Nürnberg games / 63 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.00. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 / SC Paderborn 07 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.801 / def 1.273 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.109 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.89
SC Paderborn 07 xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 26% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 3W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.80x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.11x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
26%
3.84
24%
4.20
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.21
1.89
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
4%
25.39
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.89 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 16D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.51 PPG from 63 outings (27W 14D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.51 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.78 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.42 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 42%, SC Paderborn 07 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 74% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 68% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 74% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.89 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 52%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.21 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.