1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: 1. FC Nürnberg have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The historical record gives 1. FC Nürnberg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 48% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 53% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.26 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.744 / defence 0.769 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.142 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.306. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 1. FC Nürnberg games / 62 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
1. FC Nürnberg dominate the H2H record, yet Fortuna Düsseldorf are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.26 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.744 / def 0.769 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.142 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 39% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 3W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.74) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.62
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.40
1.15
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.15 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 22W 15D 25L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 21L across 62 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.31 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 14W 5D 12L from 31 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.50 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.52 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.19 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 45%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 48% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 26% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.26 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.74 / defence 0.77 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 53%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.31 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.