1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.14 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.80 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC St. Pauli trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 43% versus FC St. Pauli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 50% | FC St. Pauli 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.944 / defence 0.904 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.932 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.311. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 1. FC Nürnberg games / 14 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 32% | FC St. Pauli 23%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | FC St. Pauli 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 29% | FC St. Pauli 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 32% | FC St. Pauli 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.56 / FC St. Pauli 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.944 / def 0.904 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.932 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC St. Pauli xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 3 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 44% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.09
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.66
1.10
FC St. Pauli xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
5%
20.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.10 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 6W 6D 2L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 3L across 14 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.71 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 2.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.21 scored and 1.14 conceded. FC St. Pauli's attacking output running into 1. FC Nürnberg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; FC St. Pauli in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.00 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.14 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 29%, FC St. Pauli 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 57% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 29% of games; FC St. Pauli in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 57% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 57% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.10 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.93 / defence 1.35, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 32% | FC St. Pauli 23%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 50%, FC St. Pauli 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.71 PPG, FC St. Pauli 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.