1. FC Nürnberg 0-0 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Erzgebirge AUE at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host Erzgebirge AUE at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 0.69 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.708 / away 1.496. Data: 0 1. FC Nürnberg games / 0 Erzgebirge AUE games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 14% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 7.14 | Draw 2.94 | Erzgebirge AUE 1.92. Erzgebirge AUE hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Erzgebirge AUE as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzgebirge AUE offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 14% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 0.69 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.708 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Erzgebirge AUE (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Erzgebirge AUE xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 14% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 52% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Erzgebirge AUE the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.85x the league average against Erzgebirge AUE's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Erzgebirge AUE's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzgebirge AUE Win
14%
7.08
34%
2.97
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.15
1.46
Erzgebirge AUE xG
7.08
14%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
3%
30.56
26%
3.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.46 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Pre-Season
Erzgebirge AUE
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
0
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 18 December 2021, when Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at 1. FC Nürnberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg and Erzgebirge AUE finished level at 0-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 0.69 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.46 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 14% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 52%, with Erzgebirge AUE to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.