1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 6W 2D 2L at MDCC-Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.20 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SC Paderborn 07 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 62% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 68% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.332 / defence 1.255 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.929 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.337. 1. FC Magdeburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 1. FC Magdeburg games / 40 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | SC Paderborn 07 4.55. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.14 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 73% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 / SC Paderborn 07 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.332 / def 1.255 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.929 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.56
SC Paderborn 07 xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 September 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 60% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.58. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.93x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
60%
1.68
19%
5.39
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
4.14
1.56
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.68
60%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
8%
13.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
2%
60.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.56 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 14L across 40 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.55 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 5W 7D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.88 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 60%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.47 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 58%, SC Paderborn 07 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 68% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 58% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 68% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 1-1 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.56 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.33 / defence 1.25 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 22%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 68%, SC Paderborn 07 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.35 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.