1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karlsruher SC make the trip to MDCC-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 2W 1D 5L from 8 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 0.70 for Karlsruher SC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Karlsruher SC — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 61% versus Karlsruher SC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 67% | Karlsruher SC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.02 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.689 / defence 1.129 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.901 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.327. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 1. FC Magdeburg games / 52 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 44%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Karlsruher SC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Karlsruher SC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.02 / Karlsruher SC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.689 / def 1.129 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.901 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Karlsruher SC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 28% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 0 | Karlsruher SC 0W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Karlsruher SC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (0.90x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.65
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.37
1.35
Karlsruher SC xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.35 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 5W 2D 11L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 5W 3D 10L from 18 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.00 for Karlsruher SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.44 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Karlsruher SC away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 0.88 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Karlsruher SC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karlsruher SC won 7-0 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
3
Draws
4
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, Karlsruher SC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-3 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, Karlsruher SC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 50% (Karlsruher SC).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 38% of games; Karlsruher SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Karlsruher SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 38% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 50% of Karlsruher SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 19, as 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.02 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.13 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 44%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 67%, Karlsruher SC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 0.94 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.