Valenciennes 0-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valenciennes and Saint Etienne meet at Stade du Hainaut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Valenciennes's home record at Stade du Hainaut: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 1.40 PPG clear of Valenciennes in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valenciennes lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 45% versus Saint Etienne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 37% | Saint Etienne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.61 xG and Saint Etienne 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.741 / defence 0.970 | Saint Etienne attack 1.133 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.099. Valenciennes's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Valenciennes games / 67 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 18% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 50%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 5.56 | Draw 3.12 | Saint Etienne 2.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 40% | Saint Etienne 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 18% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Valenciennes 0.61 / Saint Etienne 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.741 / def 0.970 | Saint Etienne attack 1.133 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Saint Etienne xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne?
Valenciennes 0 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne part of?
Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 18% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 50% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Valenciennes and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 2 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Valenciennes and Saint Etienne in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.74) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.13x) against Valenciennes's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
18%
5.61
32%
3.09
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
1.82
1.21
Saint Etienne xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
54%
1.84
Win to Nil
5%
18.76
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 19.6 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.21 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 12W 26D 29L from 67 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 21L across 67 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valenciennes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 7W 17D 9L from 33 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 12W 10D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Valenciennes are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.48 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 12W 26D 29L in their last 67 games (0.93 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 29W 17D 21L in their last 67 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.15 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
2
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 0, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Valenciennes 0-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 54%, Saint Etienne 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Valenciennes) and 54% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 33%; Valenciennes have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Valenciennes's games and 58% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Valenciennes's recent games and 54% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Valenciennes 0-2 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.61 xG and Saint Etienne 1.21 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Saint Etienne attack 1.13 / defence 0.70, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 18% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 50%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 37%, Saint Etienne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.