Valenciennes 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valenciennes have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valenciennes's home record at Stade du Hainaut: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Hainaut. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Quevilly (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Valenciennes, 1.40 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Valenciennes have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Quevilly in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Valenciennes 0W, Quevilly 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 49% versus Quevilly 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 37% | Quevilly 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.18 xG and Quevilly 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.968 / defence 0.824 | Quevilly attack 0.936 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.043. Data: 41 Valenciennes games / 41 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 45% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 25%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Quevilly 4.00. Valenciennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valenciennes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 30% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 45% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Valenciennes 1.18 / Quevilly 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.968 / def 0.824 | Quevilly attack 0.936 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Quevilly xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Quevilly kick off?
Valenciennes vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Valenciennes vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Quevilly part of?
Valenciennes vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Valenciennes and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Valenciennes and Quevilly in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.97) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.94x) against Valenciennes's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.31
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
1.99
0.80
Quevilly xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Valenciennes and 0.80 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 15D 15L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly's form line: 11W 11D 19L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.07 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valenciennes are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.90 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Quevilly away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.16 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Quevilly in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
4
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Valenciennes 2-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 53%, Quevilly 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Valenciennes) and 47% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valenciennes have failed to score in 26% of games; Quevilly in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 37% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Valenciennes's recent games and 47% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Quevilly tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 4, as Valenciennes and Quevilly drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.18 xG and Quevilly 0.80 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Quevilly landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Quevilly attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 45% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 25%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 37%, Quevilly 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.17 PPG, Quevilly 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.