Valenciennes 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Valenciennes welcome Guingamp to Stade du Hainaut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valenciennes have posted 2W 1D 6L at Stade du Hainaut — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valenciennes 1.20 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valenciennes, 0 for Guingamp and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 53% versus Guingamp 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 47% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.12 xG and Guingamp 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.865 / defence 1.669 | Guingamp attack 0.727 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.062. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Valenciennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Valenciennes games / 19 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 32% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 40%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valenciennes 67% | Guingamp 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 32% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Valenciennes 1.12 / Guingamp 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.865 / def 1.669 | Guingamp attack 0.727 / def 1.336 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Guingamp kick off?
Valenciennes vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Valenciennes 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Valenciennes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Guingamp part of?
Valenciennes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 32% chance of winning, Guingamp a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valenciennes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Valenciennes and Guingamp in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valenciennes's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.64
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.41
1.29
Guingamp xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.29 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 6D 8L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valenciennes on 1.11 PPG, Guingamp on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valenciennes are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.21 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 0.78 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guingamp in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valenciennes and Guingamp runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valenciennes's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
3
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 67%, Guingamp 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Valenciennes and 44% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valenciennes's games and 44% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Valenciennes's matches and 44% of Guingamp's.
Do Valenciennes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valenciennes and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes and Guingamp finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.12 xG and Guingamp 1.29 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.86 / defence 1.67 against Guingamp attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 32% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 40%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 47%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.11 PPG, Guingamp 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.