Valenciennes 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valenciennes vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Valenciennes welcome Guingamp to Stade du Hainaut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valenciennes have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade du Hainaut — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Guingamp are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Valenciennes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Valenciennes, 1 for Guingamp and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 50% versus Guingamp 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 40% | Guingamp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.10 xG and Guingamp 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.967 / defence 1.347 | Guingamp attack 1.326 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Valenciennes games / 40 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 21% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 57%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Guingamp 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 60% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 21% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Valenciennes 1.10 / Guingamp 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.967 / def 1.347 | Guingamp attack 1.326 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Guingamp xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Guingamp kick off?
Valenciennes vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Valenciennes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Guingamp part of?
Valenciennes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 21% chance of winning, Guingamp a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Valenciennes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Valenciennes 1W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Valenciennes and Guingamp in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valenciennes's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
21%
4.69
22%
4.54
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
3.02
1.93
Guingamp xG
4.69
21%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
3%
32.22
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.93 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 10W 15D 15L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valenciennes on 1.12 PPG, Guingamp on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (6W 11D 3L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 6D 5L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valenciennes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.38 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.45 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valenciennes and Guingamp runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valenciennes's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
3
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 65%, Guingamp 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Valenciennes) and 40% (Guingamp).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Valenciennes's games and 60% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Valenciennes's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes and Guingamp finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.10 xG and Guingamp 1.93 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.97 / defence 1.35 against Guingamp attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 21% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 57%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 40%, Guingamp 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.12 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.