Toulouse 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 44%, yet in-form Toulouse provide a compelling counter-argument — this Toulouse vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Bastia at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.33 points per game. Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 0W 2D 0L from 2 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Toulouse have the edge — a 1.33 PPG advantage (2.33 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.01 xG and Bastia 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.151 / defence 1.254 | Bastia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.763 / away 1.388. Data: 3 Toulouse games / 2 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 22% | Draw 34% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Bastia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Toulouse (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 22% | Draw 34% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Toulouse 1.01 / Bastia 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.151 / def 1.254 | Bastia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.763 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Bastia kick off?
Toulouse vs Bastia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Bastia?
Toulouse 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Toulouse vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Bastia part of?
Toulouse vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 22% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Toulouse and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Bastia in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (1.15) and Bastia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
22%
4.52
34%
2.98
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.49
1.48
Bastia xG
4.52
22%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.85
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.48 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Bastia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Bastia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Bastia in 100%.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Bastia in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Bastia have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Toulouse or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Bastia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Bastia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Bastia?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Bastia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Bastia 0-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Bastia?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Toulouse's recent matches and 100% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 0% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Bastia tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bastia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Bastia 1-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.01 xG and Bastia 1.48 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.15 / defence 1.25 against Bastia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 22% | Draw 34% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Toulouse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Bastia 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.