Sochaux 3-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Niort have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Niort away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sochaux, 1.10 for Niort — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sochaux 1W, Niort 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 43% versus Niort 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 33% | Niort 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.00 xG and Niort 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.822 / defence 0.877 | Niort attack 0.941 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.110. Data: 42 Sochaux games / 42 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 36% | Draw 32% | Niort 32%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Niort 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 40% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 36% | Draw 32% | Niort 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Sochaux 1.00 / Niort 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.822 / def 0.877 | Niort attack 0.941 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Niort xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Niort kick off?
Sochaux vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Niort?
Sochaux 3 - 0 Niort.
Where is Sochaux vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Niort part of?
Sochaux vs Niort is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 36% chance of winning, Niort a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sochaux and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Niort?
Record (2 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 1 | Niort 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Niort in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Niort (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (0.82) and Niort's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.94x) against Sochaux's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
36%
2.74
32%
3.16
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.92
0.92
Niort xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.92 for Niort, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 20W 13D 9L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Niort's form line: 14W 10D 18L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.05 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Early Season
Niort
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Niort in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 20W 13D 9L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while Niort have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Niort away?
Sochaux's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.85 PPG; Niort away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Niort in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sochaux go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sochaux
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Niort 0-3 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Niort?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 40%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Sochaux and 45% for Niort.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Niort in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sochaux's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sochaux's recent games and 45% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Niort tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Niort in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sochaux run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Niort 3-0 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.00 xG and Niort 0.92 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Niort landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Niort attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 36% | Draw 32% | Niort 32%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 33%, Niort 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.