Saint Etienne 2-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Saint Etienne's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Quevilly's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Saint Etienne 1W, Quevilly 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 4–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 62% versus Quevilly 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 55% | Quevilly 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.45 xG and Quevilly 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.081 / defence 1.053 | Quevilly attack 0.961 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Data: 40 Saint Etienne games / 40 Quevilly games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 3.57. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 50% | Quevilly 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Saint Etienne 1.45 / Quevilly 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.081 / def 1.053 | Quevilly attack 0.961 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Quevilly xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Quevilly kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Quevilly?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Quevilly part of?
Saint Etienne vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Saint Etienne and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Quevilly in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Quevilly (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.08) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.96x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.81
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Quevilly xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.09 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 15W 11D 14L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly's form line: 12W 14D 14L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.25 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 6W 5D 9L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Quevilly away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.70 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Quevilly in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Quevilly have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Quevilly 2-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Quevilly?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 45% (Saint Etienne) and 25% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Saint Etienne and 30% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Quevilly in 40%; Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 25% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 30% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Quevilly tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Quevilly 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Quevilly 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.45 xG and Quevilly 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Quevilly attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 28%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 55%, Quevilly 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Quevilly 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.