Saint Etienne 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Paris FC at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Paris FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Paris FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 4–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Paris FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Paris FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Paris FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.954 / defence 0.708 | Paris FC attack 1.055 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.101. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Saint Etienne games / 50 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Paris FC 5.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Paris FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Saint Etienne 1.46 / Paris FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.954 / def 0.708 | Paris FC attack 1.055 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Paris FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Paris FC kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Paris FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Saint Etienne 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC part of?
Saint Etienne vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 51% chance of winning, Paris FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Saint Etienne and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris FC in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.95) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.57
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.28
0.82
Paris FC xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.82 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 22W 14D 14L from 50 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 20L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.60 PPG, Paris FC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 13W 6D 6L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 14L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Paris FC away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.80 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Paris FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Paris FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Paris FC 0-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 40%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris FC in 32%; Paris FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Saint Etienne 0-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.95 / defence 0.71 against Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 20%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.60 PPG, Paris FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.