Saint Etienne 0-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Boulogne make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boulogne (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 50% versus Boulogne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 59% | Boulogne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.86 xG and Boulogne 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.308 / defence 1.131 | Boulogne attack 0.849 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.165. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Saint Etienne games / 20 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 23% | Boulogne 23%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Boulogne 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Boulogne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 23% | Boulogne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.86 / Boulogne 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.308 / def 1.131 | Boulogne attack 0.849 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Boulogne xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Boulogne kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Saint Etienne 0 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Boulogne part of?
Saint Etienne vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 55% chance of winning, Boulogne a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Boulogne in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Boulogne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.85x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.42
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.98
1.12
Boulogne xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
4%
28.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.12 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 11W 4D 7L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 6W 5D 11L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.09 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Boulogne away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.70 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Boulogne in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Boulogne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-1 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 70%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Saint Etienne) and 30% (Boulogne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Boulogne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Saint Etienne's games and 50% of Boulogne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Saint Etienne's matches and 30% of Boulogne's.
Do Saint Etienne and Boulogne tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Saint Etienne 0-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.86 xG and Boulogne 1.12 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.31 / defence 1.13 against Boulogne attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 23% | Boulogne 23%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Boulogne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 59%, Boulogne 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Boulogne's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Boulogne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.