Saint Etienne 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Amiens have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Saint Etienne's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Amiens's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for Amiens and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 64% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.41 xG and Amiens 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.153 / defence 1.195 | Amiens attack 1.056 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.039. Data: 26 Saint Etienne games / 63 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 38% | Draw 29% | Amiens 33%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Amiens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Amiens 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 38% | Draw 29% | Amiens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.41 / Amiens 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.153 / def 1.195 | Amiens attack 1.056 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Amiens xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Amiens kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Amiens part of?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 38% chance of winning, Amiens a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Amiens in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.15x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.06x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 26/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.50
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Amiens xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.31 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 17D 30L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.27 PPG from 63 outings (19W 23D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.27 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 10W 8D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (6W 14D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.13 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Amiens in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 16W 17D 30L in their last 63 games (1.03 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 23D 21L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Amiens away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.23 PPG; Amiens away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Amiens in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 61%, Amiens 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Saint Etienne) and 32% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Saint Etienne's games and 55% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 32% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Amiens tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 27, as Saint Etienne and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.41 xG and Amiens 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 26/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 38% | Draw 29% | Amiens 33%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.03 PPG, Amiens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.