Rodez 1-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Paris FC at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.90 PPG versus Paris FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Rodez have won 1, Paris FC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 59% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 47% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.58 xG and Paris FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.372 / defence 1.054 | Paris FC attack 1.093 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 Rodez games / 71 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Paris FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Paris FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Rodez 1.58 / Paris FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.372 / def 1.054 | Paris FC attack 1.093 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Rodez (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Paris FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Paris FC kick off?
Rodez vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Paris FC?
Rodez 1 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Rodez vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Paris FC part of?
Rodez vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 43% chance of winning, Paris FC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rodez and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Paris FC?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 3W.
What form are Rodez and Paris FC in?
Rodez (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.37x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.87
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.92
1.33
Paris FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rodez and 1.33 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 24D 23L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 29W 19D 22L from 70 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.33 PPG, Paris FC on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (12W 13D 9L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 13W 12D 9L from 34 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 23W 24D 23L in their last 70 games (1.33 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 29W 19D 22L in their last 70 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.44 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Rodez or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Paris FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Rodez's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Rodez
4
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Paris FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Paris FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Rodez 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 65%, Paris FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rodez) and 38% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rodez's games and 53% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Paris FC tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Paris FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Paris FC 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.58 xG and Paris FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.37 / defence 1.05 against Paris FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 47%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Paris FC 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.