Rodez 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 35%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rodez vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 32% versus Guingamp 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 29% | Guingamp 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.88 xG and Guingamp 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.733 / defence 1.262 | Guingamp attack 0.709 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Rodez's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Rodez games / 28 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 34% | Guingamp 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Guingamp 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 30% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 34% | Guingamp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Rodez 0.88 / Guingamp 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.733 / def 1.262 | Guingamp attack 0.709 / def 1.233 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Rodez (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Guingamp xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Rodez 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 35% chance of winning, Guingamp a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.73) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
35%
2.89
34%
2.93
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.70
0.82
Guingamp xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 15.0 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Rodez and 0.82 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 7W 10D 11L from 28 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 9L across 28 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.11 PPG, Guingamp on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 3W 6D 4L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.04 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Rodez's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.15 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rodez or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guingamp in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rodez 31% BTTS, Guingamp 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Rodez and 38% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 46% of games; Guingamp in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Rodez's recent matches and 38% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Rodez's recent games and 38% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Guingamp finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.88 xG and Guingamp 0.82 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.73 / defence 1.26 against Guingamp attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 35% | Draw 34% | Guingamp 31%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 29%, Guingamp 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.11 PPG, Guingamp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.