Reims 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Reims welcome Annecy to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Annecy — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Reims) versus 1.40 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reims, 0 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Annecy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 47% | Annecy 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.44 xG and Annecy 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.241 / defence 0.961 | Annecy attack 1.022 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.177. Data: 17 Reims games / 51 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 44% | Draw 26% | Annecy 30%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Reims 40% | Annecy 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 44% | Draw 26% | Annecy 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Reims 1.44 / Annecy 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.241 / def 0.961 | Annecy attack 1.022 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Reims (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Annecy xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Annecy kick off?
Reims vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Annecy?
Reims 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Reims vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Annecy part of?
Reims vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 44% chance of winning, Annecy a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reims and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Reims and Annecy in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reims's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.83
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Reims xG
Total xG
2.60
1.16
Annecy xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Reims and 1.16 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 16W 14D 21L from 51 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 18L across 51 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.22 PPG, Annecy on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 5D 11L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 8W 5D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.24 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Annecy in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Annecy have gone 20W 13D 18L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Annecy away?
Reims's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.28 PPG; Annecy away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Reims or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Annecy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Reims have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Reims's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Annecy?
From 3 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Reims 3-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Annecy?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 52%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Reims) and 44% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 32%; Reims have failed to score in 28% of games; Annecy in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Reims's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Reims's recent games and 44% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Annecy tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Annecy in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.44 xG and Annecy 1.16 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 44% | Draw 26% | Annecy 30%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 47%, Annecy 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.22 PPG, Annecy 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.