RED Star FC 93 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 host Sochaux at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93 at Stade Bauer this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sochaux — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.50 xG and Sochaux 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.063 / defence 1.016 | Sochaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Data: 34 RED Star FC 93 games / 1 Sochaux games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 25%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Sochaux 4.00. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.50 / Sochaux 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.063 / def 1.016 | Sochaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sochaux xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 46% chance of winning, Sochaux a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Sochaux (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (1.06) and Sochaux's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.43
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.56
1.05
Sochaux xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.05 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sochaux.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sochaux in 0%.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have RED Star FC 93 or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Sochaux in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux?
From 1 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Sochaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-0 Sochaux.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 0% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 100% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RED Star FC 93's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 and Sochaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.50 xG and Sochaux 1.05 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sochaux landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Sochaux attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 25%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 0%, Sochaux 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RED Star FC 93 managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sochaux conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.