RED Star FC 93 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 host Saint Etienne at Stade de Paris in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's home record at Stade de Paris: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Paris.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RED Star FC 93 at 1.80 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus Saint Etienne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 52% | Saint Etienne 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.25 xG and Saint Etienne 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.885 / defence 1.068 | Saint Etienne attack 1.180 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.285. Data: 41 RED Star FC 93 games / 42 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 29% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 45%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Saint Etienne 2.22. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Saint Etienne 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 29% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.25 / Saint Etienne 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.885 / def 1.068 | Saint Etienne attack 1.180 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Saint Etienne xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 29% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.89) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
29%
3.47
26%
3.84
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.87
1.62
Saint Etienne xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
6%
17.53
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.62 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 20W 12D 10L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 22W 8D 12L from 42 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (8W 8D 4L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 8W 4D 8L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.74 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Saint Etienne in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 10L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 8D 12L in their last 42 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Saint Etienne away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.60 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.40 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne?
From 3 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 55%, Saint Etienne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 60% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 50% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 60% of Saint Etienne's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out RED Star FC 93 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat RED Star FC 93 0-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.25 xG and Saint Etienne 1.62 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Saint Etienne attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 29% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 45%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 52%, Saint Etienne 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.