RED Star FC 93 2-2 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 host Boulogne at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Bauer, RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boulogne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Boulogne and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Boulogne in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 48% versus Boulogne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 43% | Boulogne 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.26 xG and Boulogne 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.915 / defence 0.962 | Boulogne attack 0.726 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.212. Data: 52 RED Star FC 93 games / 19 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 25%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Boulogne 4.00. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RED Star FC 93 70% | Boulogne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.26 / Boulogne 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.915 / def 0.962 | Boulogne attack 0.726 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Boulogne xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
RED Star FC 93 2 - 2 Boulogne.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 46% chance of winning, Boulogne a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Boulogne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.44
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.10
0.85
Boulogne xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.85 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 9W 8D 4L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 6W 4D 11L from 21 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Venue Form
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 8D 4L in their last 21 games (1.67 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Boulogne away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.40 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.20 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Boulogne in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
2
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Boulogne 1-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 70%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for RED Star FC 93 and 30% for Boulogne.
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Boulogne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of RED Star FC 93's games and 50% of Boulogne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 30% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 20, as RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.26 xG and Boulogne 0.85 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Boulogne outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Boulogne attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 25%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 43%, Boulogne 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Boulogne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.