RED Star FC 93 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 39%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Paris plays host to RED Star FC 93 versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 26 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ajaccio are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.25 xG and Ajaccio 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Ajaccio attack 0.824 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.169. Data: 1 RED Star FC 93 games / 39 Ajaccio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 33%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Ajaccio 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.25 / Ajaccio 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Ajaccio attack 0.824 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ajaccio xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 39% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.87) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.82x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
39%
2.53
28%
3.59
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.36
1.11
Ajaccio xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.11 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RED Star FC 93 heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ajaccio in 0%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have RED Star FC 93 or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Ajaccio have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Ajaccio 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 0% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 0% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Ajaccio tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.25 xG and Ajaccio 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Ajaccio attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 33%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 100%, Ajaccio 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with RED Star FC 93 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RED Star FC 93 scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.