Quevilly 2-0 Villefranche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villefranche at 39%, yet in-form Quevilly provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Villefranche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Villefranche at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Quevilly — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villefranche stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ligue 2 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Villefranche have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Quevilly have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 1, Villefranche 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.98 xG and Villefranche 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.877 / defence 1.202 | Villefranche attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.110. Data: 38 Quevilly games / 0 Villefranche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 30% | Villefranche 39%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Villefranche 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villefranche at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Quevilly (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villefranche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Villefranche | Competition: Ligue 2, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 30% | Villefranche 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Quevilly 0.98 / Villefranche 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.877 / def 1.202 | Villefranche attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Villefranche (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Villefranche xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Villefranche kick off?
Quevilly vs Villefranche kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Villefranche?
Quevilly 2 - 0 Villefranche.
Where is Quevilly vs Villefranche being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Villefranche part of?
Quevilly vs Villefranche is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Villefranche?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 31% chance of winning, Villefranche a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Villefranche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Villefranche?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Quevilly and Villefranche will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Villefranche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Villefranche?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | Villefranche 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Villefranche in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Villefranche (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Villefranche's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Villefranche's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villefranche Win
31%
3.23
30%
3.32
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.11
1.13
Villefranche xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Villefranche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Villefranche expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.13 for Villefranche, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Villefranche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Quevilly's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villefranche, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Villefranche, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Quevilly by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Villefranche heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Villefranche are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Villefranche in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Villefranche
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Villefranche in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Villefranche have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Quevilly
0
Draws
0
Villefranche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Villefranche?
From 2 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Villefranche have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Villefranche last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2022, when Quevilly 2-0 Villefranche.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Villefranche?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Villefranche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Villefranche?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Quevilly's games and 100% of Villefranche's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Villefranche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Quevilly's matches and 100% of Villefranche's.
Do Quevilly and Villefranche tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Villefranche in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Villefranche.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Villefranche 2-0 at Stade Robert Diochon, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.98 xG and Villefranche 1.13 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villefranche landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Villefranche attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 31% | Draw 30% | Villefranche 39%, with Villefranche to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 100%, Villefranche 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Quevilly managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Villefranche managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.