Quevilly 0-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Quevilly take on Nimes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Nimes travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 April 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.
Nimes — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nimes's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Quevilly at 0.60 PPG versus Nimes's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Quevilly, 1 for Nimes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Nimes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Nimes trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 42% versus Nimes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 39% | Nimes 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.92 xG and Nimes 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.800 / defence 1.124 | Nimes attack 0.741 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Quevilly games / 33 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 34% | Draw 35% | Nimes 31%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Nimes 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 40% | Nimes 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 34% | Draw 35% | Nimes 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Quevilly 0.92 / Nimes 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.800 / def 1.124 | Nimes attack 0.741 / def 1.227 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Nimes xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Nimes kick off?
Quevilly vs Nimes kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Nimes?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Quevilly vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Nimes part of?
Quevilly vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 34% chance of winning, Nimes a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Quevilly and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Nimes 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Nimes in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.80x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
35%
2.88
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.78
0.86
Nimes xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.86 for Nimes, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Nimes's form line: 11W 7D 15L from 33 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.03 PPG, Nimes on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.09 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Nimes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Nimes in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Nimes have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Nimes away?
Nimes's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.19 PPG; Nimes away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
0
Draws
3
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Nimes have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Nimes 2-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 44%, Nimes 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Quevilly) and 50% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nimes in 38%; Quevilly have failed to score in 44% of games; Nimes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Quevilly's recent matches and 31% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Quevilly's recent games and 50% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Nimes tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nimes in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.92 xG and Nimes 0.86 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Nimes attack 0.74 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 34% | Draw 35% | Nimes 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 39%, Nimes 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nimes's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.03 PPG, Nimes 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Nimes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.