Quevilly 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 46%, yet in-form Laval provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Quevilly (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Laval away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Laval are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Laval in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 1 for Laval and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 46% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 44% | Laval 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.41 xG and Laval 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.903 / defence 1.103 | Laval attack 0.956 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 0.979. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Quevilly games / 41 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 46% | Draw 27% | Laval 28%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Laval 3.57. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Laval (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 60% | Laval 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 46% | Draw 27% | Laval 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Quevilly 1.41 / Laval 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.903 / def 1.103 | Laval attack 0.956 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.215 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Laval xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Laval kick off?
Quevilly vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Laval?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Quevilly vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Laval part of?
Quevilly vs Laval is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 46% chance of winning, Laval a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Quevilly and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Laval?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Laval in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Laval (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.96x) against Quevilly's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.74
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.45
1.03
Laval xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.03 for Laval, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 12W 14D 15L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 16W 4D 21L across 41 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Quevilly against 1.27 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 6W 9D 5L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 5W 2D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Laval's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Laval
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Laval in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 12W 14D 15L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Laval have gone 16W 4D 21L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Laval away?
Quevilly's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.35 PPG; Laval away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Laval in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Laval?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Laval have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Laval 2-4 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Laval?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 65%, Laval 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Quevilly) and 55% (Laval). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Laval in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Laval?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Quevilly's games and 45% of Laval's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Quevilly's matches and 55% of Laval's.
Do Quevilly and Laval tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Laval in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 4, as Quevilly and Laval drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.41 xG and Laval 1.03 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Laval attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 46% | Draw 27% | Laval 28%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 44%, Laval 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.22 PPG, Laval 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.