Quevilly 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Quevilly at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Amiens encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Quevilly have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Quevilly's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.

Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Quevilly, 0.70 for Amiens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Amiens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Quevilly 2W, Amiens 0W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Quevilly winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 42% versus Amiens 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 42% | Amiens 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.64 xG and Amiens 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.004 / defence 0.969 | Amiens attack 0.855 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Quevilly games / 74 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Quevilly 53% | Draw 25% | Amiens 22%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Amiens 4.55. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 70% | Amiens 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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