PAU 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as PAU welcome Paris FC to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Paris FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of PAU's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for PAU, 1 for Paris FC and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 58% versus Paris FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 56% | Paris FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.86 xG and Paris FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.840 / defence 0.897 | Paris FC attack 1.191 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.108. Paris FC's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 PAU games / 50 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 27% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 44%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Paris FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
PAU dominate the H2H record, yet Paris FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Paris FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 27% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG PAU 0.86 / Paris FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.840 / def 0.897 | Paris FC attack 1.191 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Paris FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Paris FC kick off?
PAU vs Paris FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Paris FC?
PAU 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is PAU vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Paris FC part of?
PAU vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 27% chance of winning, Paris FC a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PAU and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
Record (6 meetings): PAU 3W | Draws 2 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are PAU and Paris FC in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about PAU vs Paris FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAU's attack rating (0.84) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
27%
3.77
30%
3.34
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
PAU xG
Total xG
2.04
1.19
Paris FC xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for PAU and 1.19 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 15D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.72 PPG from 50 outings (24W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Paris FC on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAU's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Paris FC in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 14D 12L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.54 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have PAU or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Paris FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Paris FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Paris FC?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 42% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 42% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Paris FC tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAU's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.86 xG and Paris FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAU fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Paris FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.71, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 27% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 44%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 56%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Paris FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.