PAU 2-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for PAU, 1.10 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Bastia edge it 3 wins to 2, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended PAU 1–1 Bastia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Bastia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.035 / defence 1.464 | Bastia attack 0.784 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Bastia's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. PAU's defence rating of 1.464 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 59 games and Bastia's last 58.
Result probabilities: PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.81 | Draw 3.32 | Bastia 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 70% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG PAU 0.99 / Bastia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.035 / def 1.464 | Bastia attack 0.784 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bastia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Bastia FAQs
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 2 - 2 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 26% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.78x) against PAU's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 59 games and Bastia's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
26%
3.81
30%
3.32
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
PAU xG
Total xG
2.33
1.35
Bastia xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for PAU and 1.35 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.14 PPG from 58 outings (14W 24D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for PAU against 1.14 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 29 away games (3W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.95 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Bastia
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ PAU vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Bastia have gone 14W 24D 20L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bastia away?
PAU's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.41 PPG; Bastia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have PAU or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won PAU 2-6 Bastia on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Bastia 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAU) and 21% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bastia in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 34% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAU's recent games and 21% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of PAU's recent matches and 66% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Bastia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Bastia finished level at 2-2 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.46 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.29 PPG, Bastia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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