Paris FC 3-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Quevilly at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Charléty this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Paris FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Quevilly and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 44% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 35% | Quevilly 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.51 xG and Quevilly 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.121 / defence 0.998 | Quevilly attack 0.751 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.989. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Paris FC games / 23 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 54% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 17%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Quevilly 5.88. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 40% | Quevilly 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 54% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Paris FC 1.51 / Quevilly 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.121 / def 0.998 | Quevilly attack 0.751 / def 1.394 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Quevilly xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Quevilly kick off?
Paris FC vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Paris FC 3 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Paris FC vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Quevilly part of?
Paris FC vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 54% chance of winning, Quevilly a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Paris FC and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in?
Paris FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.12) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
54%
1.86
30%
3.37
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.25
0.74
Quevilly xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
4%
27.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.74 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC come into this having played 23 games, going 13W 5D 5L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Quevilly — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Paris FC's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.96 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 games (1.91 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Quevilly away?
Paris FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Quevilly in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Quevilly runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris FC's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 46%, Quevilly 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Paris FC) and 54% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Quevilly in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Paris FC's recent matches and 46% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Paris FC's recent games and 54% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Quevilly tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Quevilly 3-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.51 xG and Quevilly 0.74 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Quevilly attack 0.75 / defence 1.39, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 54% | Draw 30% | Quevilly 17%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 35%, Quevilly 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.