Paris FC 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Annecy have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Paris FC. A 1.20 PPG lead over Annecy (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Paris FC 2–2 Annecy — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 44% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 46% | Annecy 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.39 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.076 / defence 0.993 | Annecy attack 0.838 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.149. Data: built from Paris FC's last 57 games and Annecy's last 57.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 46% | Draw 29% | Annecy 25%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.16 | Draw 3.50 | Annecy 3.98. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 46% | Draw 29% | Annecy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Paris FC 1.39 / Annecy 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.076 / def 0.993 | Annecy attack 0.838 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Annecy xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Annecy kick off?
Paris FC vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Annecy?
Paris FC 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Paris FC vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Annecy part of?
Paris FC vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 46% chance of winning, Annecy a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Paris FC and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Paris FC vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.84x) against Paris FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 57 games and Annecy's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.50
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.95
Annecy xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.95 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 13D 21L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.12 PPG from 57 outings (15W 19D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Paris FC against 1.12 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Paris FC's home form reads 11W 5D 12L across their last 28 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Annecy in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 23W 13D 21L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 19D 23L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Annecy away?
Paris FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Annecy away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Annecy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 3, Annecy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Annecy?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 39%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Paris FC) and 57% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Paris FC's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Paris FC's matches and 57% of Annecy's.
Do Paris FC and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Paris FC's recent matches and 68% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.39 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 46% | Draw 29% | Annecy 25%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 46%, Annecy 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.44 PPG, Annecy 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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