Niort 1-3 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade René Gaillard plays host to Niort versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Niort's home record at Stade René Gaillard: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Niort are significantly better at Stade René Gaillard than their overall form suggests.
Dijon (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dijon have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Niort 0W, Dijon 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 31% versus Dijon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 31% | Dijon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.08 xG and Dijon 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.878 / defence 0.906 | Dijon attack 0.917 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.032. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Niort games / 35 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 39% | Draw 33% | Dijon 28%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Dijon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Niort 30% | Dijon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 39% | Draw 33% | Dijon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Niort 1.08 / Dijon 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.878 / def 0.906 | Dijon attack 0.917 / def 1.311 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Niort (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Dijon xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Dijon kick off?
Niort vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Dijon?
Niort 1 - 3 Dijon.
Where is Niort vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Dijon part of?
Niort vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 39% chance of winning, Dijon a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Niort and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 1 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Niort and Dijon in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.88) and Dijon's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.92x) against Niort's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
39%
2.55
33%
3.02
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Niort xG
Total xG
1.93
0.86
Dijon xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Niort and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Niort and 0.86 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 9D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (12W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Niort against 1.23 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Niort's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Dijon in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Dijon have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Dijon away?
Niort's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.53 PPG; Dijon away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Niort or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dijon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Niort go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Niort
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Dijon 0-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Dijon?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 29%, Dijon 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Niort) and 53% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 41% of games; Dijon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Niort's recent matches and 53% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Niort's recent games and 53% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Dijon tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Dijon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Niort 1-3 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.08 xG and Dijon 0.86 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Dijon attack 0.92 / defence 1.31, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 39% | Draw 33% | Dijon 28%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 31%, Dijon 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.29 PPG, Dijon 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.