Nimes 0-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Guingamp meet at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Nimes (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nimes at Stade des Costières this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nimes 0W, Guingamp 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 50% versus Guingamp 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 57% | Guingamp 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.25 xG and Guingamp 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.012 / defence 1.387 | Guingamp attack 0.743 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 0.913. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Nimes games / 30 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 42% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Nimes 80% | Guingamp 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 42% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Nimes 1.25 / Guingamp 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.012 / def 1.387 | Guingamp attack 0.743 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.009 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Nimes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Guingamp xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Guingamp kick off?
Nimes vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Guingamp?
Nimes 0 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Nimes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Guingamp part of?
Nimes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 42% chance of winning, Guingamp a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nimes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Nimes and Guingamp in?
Nimes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nimes's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.74x) against Nimes's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.28
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.19
0.94
Guingamp xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nimes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nimes and 0.94 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nimes's recent record stands at 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 9L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Nimes against 1.30 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.10 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Guingamp away?
Nimes's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.27 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nimes have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nimes
0
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Guingamp have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Guingamp 1-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 67%, Guingamp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Nimes) and 33% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Nimes's recent matches and 40% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Nimes's recent games and 33% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Nimes 0-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.25 xG and Guingamp 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nimes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Guingamp outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.01 / defence 1.39 against Guingamp attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 42% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 57%, Guingamp 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.30 PPG, Guingamp 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.