Nancy 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sochaux travel to Stade Marcel-Picot to take on Nancy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy at Stade Marcel-Picot this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sochaux — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Nancy in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 62% versus Sochaux 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 38% | Sochaux 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.81 xG and Sochaux 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.914 / defence 1.461 | Sochaux attack 0.929 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Data: 13 Nancy games / 13 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 20% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 50%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Sochaux 2.00. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 67% | Sochaux 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 20% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Nancy 0.81 / Sochaux 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.914 / def 1.461 | Sochaux attack 0.929 / def 0.964 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sochaux xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Sochaux kick off?
Nancy vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Sochaux?
Nancy 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Nancy vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Sochaux part of?
Nancy vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 20% chance of winning, Sochaux a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nancy and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Sochaux in?
Nancy (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Sochaux (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nancy's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
20%
4.99
29%
3.39
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.25
1.43
Sochaux xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
20.94
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nancy and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Nancy and 1.43 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nancy come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.46 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nancy's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nancy are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.08 scored and 0.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sochaux in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.83 PPG; Sochaux away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Nancy or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Sochaux in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nancy and Sochaux runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Sochaux have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Sochaux 1-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sochaux tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 67%, Sochaux 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nancy) and 50% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 33%; Nancy have failed to score in 33% of games; Sochaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Sochaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nancy's games and 50% of Sochaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nancy vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nancy's recent games and 50% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Sochaux tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nancy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 14, as Nancy and Sochaux drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.81 xG and Sochaux 1.43 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nancy fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sochaux landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.91 / defence 1.46 against Sochaux attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 20% | Draw 29% | Sochaux 50%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 38%, Sochaux 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.