Nancy 0-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Rodez at Stade Marcel-Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 1W 3D 3L at Stade Marcel-Picot — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rodez have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Nancy) versus 1.10 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 60% versus Rodez 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 40% | Rodez 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.86 xG and Rodez 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.839 / defence 1.343 | Rodez attack 0.852 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Data: 15 Nancy games / 15 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 27% | Draw 30% | Rodez 42%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 57% | Rodez 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 27% | Draw 30% | Rodez 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Nancy 0.86 / Rodez 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.839 / def 1.343 | Rodez attack 0.852 / def 1.137 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Rodez (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rodez xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Rodez kick off?
Nancy vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Rodez?
Nancy 0 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Nancy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Rodez part of?
Nancy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 27% chance of winning, Rodez a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Nancy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Rodez in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
27%
3.65
30%
3.29
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.00
1.14
Rodez xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Nancy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Nancy and 1.14 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Nancy have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 6D 7L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.07 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Rodez have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.86 PPG; Rodez away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Nancy or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Rodez in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nancy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nancy
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Nancy 1-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 57%, Rodez 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nancy) and 29% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 43% of games; Rodez in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Nancy's recent matches and 43% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nancy's recent games and 29% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Rodez tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Rodez in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Nancy 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.86 xG and Rodez 1.14 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nancy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rodez outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 27% | Draw 30% | Rodez 42%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 40%, Rodez 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.