Nancy 2-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Nancy welcome PAU to Stade Marcel-Picot. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nancy's home record at Stade Marcel-Picot: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAU's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nancy 0.70 PPG, PAU 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nancy, 1 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nancy in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 51% versus PAU 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 46% | PAU 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.01 xG and PAU 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.771 / defence 1.578 | PAU attack 0.724 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Nancy's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Nancy games / 37 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 29% | Draw 29% | PAU 41%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | PAU 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 30% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 29% | Draw 29% | PAU 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Nancy 1.01 / PAU 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.771 / def 1.578 | PAU attack 0.724 / def 1.386 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: PAU (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PAU xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs PAU kick off?
Nancy vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs PAU?
Nancy 2 - 3 PAU.
Where is Nancy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs PAU part of?
Nancy vs PAU is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 29% chance of winning, PAU a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nancy and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Nancy and PAU in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. PAU (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nancy's attack at 0.77x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.42
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
PAU xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nancy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nancy and 1.25 for PAU, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nancy come into this having played 37 games, going 6W 9D 22L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (13W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
PAU carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nancy's home form reads 4W 4D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.03 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and PAU in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 6W 9D 22L in their last 37 games (0.73 PPG), while PAU have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or PAU away?
Nancy's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.89 PPG; PAU away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nancy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nancy
1
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, PAU have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when PAU 1-3 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 39%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nancy) and 44% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games; PAU in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nancy's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nancy's recent games and 44% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Nancy 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Nancy 2-3 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.01 xG and PAU 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nancy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.77 / defence 1.58 against PAU attack 0.72 / defence 1.39, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 29% | Draw 29% | PAU 41%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 46%, PAU 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.