Martigues 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Martigues vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Martigues and Dunkerque meet at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Martigues's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.83 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Martigues have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Martigues's home record at Orange Vélodrome: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (0.00 PPG). Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Orange Vélodrome this season.
Dunkerque have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Dunkerque arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Martigues half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 83% of games.
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Martigues 17% | Dunkerque 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Martigues 67% | Dunkerque 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.68 xG and Dunkerque 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.534 / defence 1.464 | Dunkerque attack 1.038 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.137. Martigues's attack strength of 0.534 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Martigues games / 44 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Martigues 14% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 63%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Dunkerque 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Dunkerque (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Martigues 0% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 14% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Martigues 0.68 / Dunkerque 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.534 / def 1.464 | Dunkerque attack 1.038 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Dunkerque xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Martigues vs Dunkerque kick off?
Martigues vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Martigues vs Dunkerque?
Martigues 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Martigues vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Martigues vs Dunkerque part of?
Martigues vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 14% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Martigues and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Martigues vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Martigues and Dunkerque in?
Martigues (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.83 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Martigues's attack at 0.53x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.04x) against Martigues's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
14%
7.00
23%
4.33
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Martigues xG
Total xG
2.41
1.73
Dunkerque xG
7.00
14%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
3%
39.42
32%
3.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Martigues and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Martigues and 1.73 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Martigues come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 0D 5L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Martigues, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dunkerque carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Martigues are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Martigues and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Have Martigues or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Martigues have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Martigues
1
Draws
0
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Martigues have won 1, Dunkerque have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Dunkerque 0-1 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Martigues and Dunkerque?
Martigues have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Martigues see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Martigues) and 50% (Dunkerque) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Martigues) and 50% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 33%; Martigues have failed to score in 83% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Martigues play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Martigues's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Martigues vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Martigues's matches and 50% of Dunkerque's.
Do Martigues and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Martigues have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Martigues and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Martigues and Dunkerque finished level at 1-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.68 xG and Dunkerque 1.73 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.53 / defence 1.46 against Dunkerque attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 14% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 63%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 67%, Dunkerque 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Martigues's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Martigues conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.