Le Havre 0-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Nimes at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nimes have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Le Havre) versus 1.60 (Nimes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 1, Nimes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 37% versus Nimes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 30% | Nimes 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.07 xG and Nimes 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.755 / defence 1.174 | Nimes attack 0.920 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.955. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Le Havre games / 27 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 30% | Nimes 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Nimes 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 20% | Nimes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 30% | Nimes 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Le Havre 1.07 / Nimes 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.755 / def 1.174 | Nimes attack 0.920 / def 1.427 | league avg home 0.993 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Nimes xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Nimes kick off?
Le Havre vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Nimes?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Le Havre vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nimes part of?
Le Havre vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Nimes a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Le Havre and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Nimes 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Nimes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Nimes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.76) and Nimes's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.34
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.10
1.03
Nimes xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.03 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 10W 11D 6L from 27 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 11L across 27 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.52 PPG, Nimes on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nimes's away record stands at 5W 2D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Nimes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 6L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while Nimes have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nimes away?
Le Havre's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.46 PPG; Nimes away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Nimes in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Le Havre's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
0
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Nimes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Nimes 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nimes?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 38%, Nimes 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Le Havre) and 62% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nimes in 31%; Le Havre have failed to score in 31% of games; Nimes in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Le Havre's recent matches and 38% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Le Havre's recent games and 62% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nimes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nimes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.07 xG and Nimes 1.03 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.43, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 30% | Nimes 34%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 30%, Nimes 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nimes's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.52 PPG, Nimes 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Nimes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.