Laval 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Laval face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estac Troyes travel to Stade Francis Le Basser to take on Laval in Ligue 2 (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Laval — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Laval at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Estac Troyes's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 1.60 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Laval, 2 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2024, ended Laval 0–0 Estac Troyes — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Estac Troyes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 44% | Estac Troyes 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.26 xG and Estac Troyes 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.057 / defence 1.045 | Estac Troyes attack 1.057 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.014. Data: built from Laval's last 57 games and Estac Troyes's last 57.
Result probabilities: Laval 40% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.53 | Draw 3.61 | Estac Troyes 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Laval 70% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 40% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Laval 1.26 / Estac Troyes 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.057 / def 1.045 | Estac Troyes attack 1.057 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Laval (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Estac Troyes xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Laval vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Laval vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Laval 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Laval vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Estac Troyes part of?
Laval vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 40% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Laval and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Laval vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Laval's attack at 1.06x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 57 games and Estac Troyes's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Laval xG
Total xG
2.38
1.12
Estac Troyes xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Laval and 1.12 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Laval come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 16D 18L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.11 PPG from 57 outings (15W 18D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.49 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Laval's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.09 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Laval (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Laval vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 23W 16D 18L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 15W 18D 24L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Estac Troyes away?
Laval's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.36 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Laval or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes won Estac Troyes 4-0 Laval.
Laval's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Laval
1
Draws
4
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Laval and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Estac Troyes 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 64%, Estac Troyes 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Laval) and 43% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 36%; Estac Troyes in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Laval's recent matches and 39% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Laval and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Laval's recent games and 43% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Laval's recent matches and 61% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.26 xG and Estac Troyes 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Estac Troyes attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 40% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Estac Troyes 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.49 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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