Laval 1-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Laval face Bordeaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Laval host Bordeaux at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Laval have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Laval's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bordeaux stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bordeaux's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Laval at 0.90 PPG versus Bordeaux's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Laval's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Laval, 2 for Bordeaux and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Laval 1–0 Bordeaux — a Laval win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bordeaux trading profile (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Bordeaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 52% | Bordeaux 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.24 xG and Bordeaux 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.853 / defence 1.367 | Bordeaux attack 1.027 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Bordeaux's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Laval's projected output up. Laval's defence rating of 1.367 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bordeaux's projected output up. Data: built from Laval's last 72 games and Bordeaux's last 71.
Result probabilities: Laval 29% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 45%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.41 | Draw 3.97 | Bordeaux 2.20. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Laval's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Laval 90% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 29% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Laval 1.24 / Bordeaux 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.853 / def 1.367 | Bordeaux attack 1.027 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Bordeaux xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Laval vs Bordeaux kick off?
Laval vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Bordeaux?
Laval 1 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Laval vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Bordeaux part of?
Laval vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 29% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Laval and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Laval vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.85) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 72 games and Bordeaux's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
29%
3.41
25%
3.97
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Laval xG
Total xG
2.84
1.60
Bordeaux xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Laval and 1.60 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Laval have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 26W 14D 31L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 32W 18D 21L from 71 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.30 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 7D 15L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 12W 9D 15L from their last 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.30 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
Laval (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Laval vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 26W 14D 31L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 32W 18D 21L in their last 71 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Bordeaux away?
Laval's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.36 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Laval or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 May 2023, when Bordeaux won Bordeaux 3-0 Laval.
Laval's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Laval
0
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Bordeaux?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 2, Bordeaux have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Laval 1-0 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 61%, Bordeaux 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Laval) and 50% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 31%; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Laval's recent matches and 47% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Laval and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Laval's recent games and 50% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Laval's recent matches and 78% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Laval defy the odds to beat Bordeaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Bordeaux 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.24 xG and Bordeaux 1.60 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Bordeaux attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 29% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 45%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 52%, Bordeaux 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.30 PPG, Bordeaux 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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